Think of today’s market as if you are driving your car through it. If you are a buyer searching for a condo, imagine pulling into a large parking lot and seeing plenty of open spaces. You can slow down, drive around, compare your options and decide where you want to park. Single-family home sellers are having a very different experience. Their market is traveling in the fast lane, with well-priced homes moving quickly and sellers receiving a median 99.4% of their original asking price. It is one Oʻahu housing market, but its two major segments are moving at very different speeds.
For single-family homes, the fast lane continues. September closed sales increased 6.2% from a year ago to 293, while the median sales price declined 3.9% to $1.11 million. That one-month price change shouldn't distract us from the longer road we have been traveling. Year-to-date, the median price is $1.18 million, up 3.1% from last year and 7.3% from two years ago. With only 3.2 months of inventory and a median of just 16 days on market, sellers of desirable, well-priced homes continue to have the advantage.
The condo side looks more like that open parking lot. Active inventory reached 2,509 units in September, up 7.8% from last year, while closed sales declined 8.1%. There is now a 7.0-month supply of condos compared with just 3.2 months for single-family homes. Pull the camera back even further and the contrast becomes clearer. Condo inventory has grown from 1,194 units in September 2023 to 2,509 today. Single-family inventory increased from 592 to 798 over the same period. Condo buyers simply have far more spaces to choose from than they did three years ago.
We also need to know where the road may be heading, and that means looking through the windshield rather than only in the rearview mirror. Closed sales represent demand from earlier contracts. Pending sales give us a more current view. In September, single-family pending sales declined just 1.3% year over year, but condo pending sales dropped 28.6%. Inventory already in escrow declined 14.3% for single-family homes and 20.0% for condos. Those numbers suggest traffic ahead may be slowing, particularly in the condo market.
For buyers and sellers, knowing which lane you are in matters. Single-family home buyers still face relatively limited choices and competition for desirable properties. Condo buyers can take more time, compare more properties and often negotiate from a stronger position. Condo sellers need to recognize that buyers can simply drive past their property and choose another if the price, condition or value isn't competitive.
The Oʻahu market is not simply going up or down. We are all traveling the same road, but right now we are moving at two very different speeds.